What should be the strategy of victory?” asks the author in his in his article by Mykola Bieleskov, one of the best Ukrainian experts in the field of defense and war studies. And he outlines plans for the war for the next two years. And needs, in particular –“the problem of mobilization illustrates the deep gap between the dominant postmodern liberal system of values, based on the comfort of the individual and the unattractiveness of military service as a future career, and the problem of protecting the state in the face of external aggression.”
At the moment, this is a key challenge for Ukraine, as virtually everyone involved in decision-making, communication with allies, and even public analytics is a carrier of this liberal value system. And despite everything, they try to think and plan in its coordinate system.
A simple example is the philosophy of the Reserve+ app and mobilization in general. It is focused on the comfort of the user/conscripts and does not actually contribute to mobilization. As, by and large, do the amendments to the law on mobilization. But here, developers and customers have fallen into their own trap, as the comfort of those in the rear conflicts with the comfort of those who have been at the front since February 24, 2022. And the result of the choice that had to be made was obvious.
However, the limitations of the liberal value system and rather primitive thinking have created several contradictions/paradoxes that the authors of the law and the customers of the app are not ready to answer:
- In its current form, the application actually works for those who have legitimate reasons for postponement/booking and wanted to check this status. However, in the end, they were forced to go update the data, which unnecessarily overloaded the TCC. Texty has a great report on this by Otar Dovzhenko. Be sure to read it.
- Realizing that the changes and the application would not increase the number of volunteers, they expanded the field of those who became liable for military service. By lowering the age limit, which is generally correct, and by recognizing the sick as fit, which looks like wild idiocy. For some positions will be filled by people who are physically dependent on regular intake of serious medications, after major surgeries, and with the risk of dying from simple overheating. I don’t understand why these people cannot be offered jobs in critical infrastructure, as drivers of public transport, employees of various departments, etc. And as a result, the healthy ones go into hiding, while the sick, who should be under constant medical supervision, end up in the army.
- The liberal system of values does not allow us to effectively counter Russian agents. This is a battlefield that we have already lost. No one dared to make the decision that was obvious and the only right one – to temporarily restrict the freedoms of those who acted against the interests of the state. As during World War II, the United States did with citizens of Japanese descent, imprisoning tens of thousands of people simply on the basis of their nationality.
- This value system also comes into conflict with effective manual management of quick decisions. Or, more simply, with the provision of the necessary not entirely legal means, or with a corruption component. As a result, there is a paradox when Pashynskyi, Liev and others are being prosecuted, Reznikov is being attacked, but thousands of those who took bribes, which led to hundreds of thousands of conscripts being abroad, are not being touched. The reason is that the work of the TCC and the HQC must be documented, which is difficult on this scale, and isolated cases like Pashynskyi’s or Reznikov’s are convenient, media-friendly, and appeal to grantors.
To conclude with regard to mobilization, I would like to note that the authoritarian Russia quickly made the right decision: it stopped unpopular mobilization “on the street”, covering the urgent need for prisoners and PMCs, and moved to targeted contact and covert methods. At the same time, it has generally provided more freedoms to the average Russian than in Ukraine. And, as a result, a sincere motivation to continue the war and a queue of those who are interested in the material side of participation in the war.
Support from allies
The holders of the liberal worldview refuse to recognize the reality in which their values no longer have no alternative. And while one part of society in the United States and Europe is moving toward extreme manifestations of liberalism, opposing trends are gaining ground. First of all, because the current application of liberalism is already turning into the direct opposite of itself – the dictatorship of not just a minority, but often disappearing small groups. Having started with a mostly fair fight against their discrimination, we end up with a situation where the total majority does not understand what it did wrong, for what reasons it is being imposed on it that is absolutely unacceptable.
There is a conflict between the positions of political elites and voters in major Western countries. And since traditional elites have not shown flexibility, the time has come for populists and radicals. They give simple answers to complex questions, operate with conspiracy theories, and are mostly favorable to Russia. Because Putin captured this field in advance and generously fertilized it with money from oil and gas sales.
However, we still have a chance to win on this field. The proof is the successful operation to persuade US Congress Speaker Johnson, when it was Christian pastors from Ukraine who convinced him that we are more our own than Russia.
Who are we?
This is really the key now – to be our own for the allies. Because the shock effect of the beginning of the largest war in Europe since World War II has passed. The victims, the horrific crimes of Bucha and Mariupol have become commonplace. Many countries perceive refugees from Ukraine not as a problem or a threat, but as a solution to demographic problems.
On the other hand, Russia has broken the expectations of sanctions, of internal instability, and has found effective allies. And no matter how much we sneer at the DPRK, they give Putin the weapons that kill us. All in all, Russia has switched to the “USSR under siege” mode and is holding up quite well. In order to defeat this monster again, the West needs to reorganize and have Reagan-level leaders.
Otherwise, the West can quite calmly watch the killing of millions of people without intervening, even when it has all the means and resources. The events in Rwanda are proof of this. And, by and large, how many Ukrainians cared about the killing of tens or hundreds of thousands of Tutsis per day? Well, except for watching a famous Hollywood movie.
Therefore, Ukraine must clearly define itself in these civilizational coordinates. And it is a big mistake to believe that the markers of Euro-Atlantic civilization are freedom of speech or the fight against corruption, for example. Or minority rights.
However, for minorities, the opposite is true. And here Ukraine faces a difficult choice. In France or Britain, for example, minorities make up a significant part of their society. And they pose such serious problems that “old migrants” represented by Risha Sunak are lobbying for very strict laws on the expulsion of migrants. And in France, anti-migrant rhetoric makes Le Pen’s party popular.
The interests of minorities in Europe and the United States are almost completely opposed to the interests of indigenous, or rather traditional, inhabitants. In the United States, this directly became the main topic of the presidential campaign and a reason for not providing assistance to Ukraine. And since Ukraine is required to decide who we are, this choice will have to be made.
And in it, we have to pragmatically assume that we will be so close to these minorities that they will be willing to fight for us? Just look at Obama’s policy, the calls of current Labor leaders, Biden’s deep concern, and so on. Remember that Boris Johnson made a break in Western assistance. That the European right, except for those who are directly financed by Putin, is almost all for us.
