The recent governmental crisis in Germany could return power to the Christian Democrats, who remain the most popular party in the country.
Germany’s de facto three-party ruling coalition of the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Free Democrats has ceased to exist after Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that he would dismiss the “Free Democrat” Finance Minister Christian Lindner due to persistent disagreements over spending and economic reforms. The “traffic light” coalition, which was named after the main colors of the parties – red (Social Democrats), green (obviously) and yellow (Free Democrats) – is ceasing to exist.
The disagreement in the coalition arose from the position of the Free Democrats’ Finance Minister Lindner, who insisted that the government stick to austerity and tax cuts, while the Social Democrats wanted to maintain social spending and support German industry with economic incentives. Lindner demanded liberal economic reforms, tax cuts, and curtailment of climate policy to stimulate economic growth, but such provisions contradicted the policies of the Greens and the SPD. Chancellor Scholz was dissatisfied with this approach of the finance minister and criticized his “frugality” in helping Ukraine, but Lindner refused to “break his oath.”
The dismissal of the finance minister removes the Free Democratic Party from the government coalition and forces Chancellor Scholz to call a vote of confidence in parliament, which is scheduled for January 15. If the incumbent chancellor loses this vote – and the rival parties and the Free Democrats are unlikely to support the government’s policies – early elections will be held as early as March 2025.
There is also a possibility that within 21 days the parliamentary parties will form a new majority, the government coalition will attract another party to the partnership, and the MPs will approve a new chancellor.
Given that the Free Democrats currently have a rating of about 4%, which does not allow them to enter the Bundestag, the parliamentary future of the German liberals remains in doubt.
Early elections are likely to bring to power a new government led by the CDU/CSU, which is currently leading in opinion polls by a wide margin. In recent years, the German Christian Democrats have moved to a more center-right position on migration and have also advocated for more military aid to Ukraine.
Author: Valeriy Maydanyuk