I see no way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone. Even if Ukraine were able to push Russian troops back to the borders, which is an increasingly remote prospect, it would not end the war. Such wars can only be ended by negotiations, – Deputy Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Skibitsky for The Economist
Even if Ukraine were able to push Russian troops back to the borders, it would not end the war, and so both sides are trying to take the “most favorable position” before potential negotiations. According to Vadym Skybytskyi, they can begin no earlier than the second half of 2025.
Statements of the DIU representative in an interview with The Economist:
◾️Такі wars can only end in treaties. Currently, both sides are fighting for the “most favorable position”. But meaningful negotiations can begin no earlier than the second half of 2025.
◾️Україна on the brink. It’s harder than ever.The Russians always knew that April and May would be a difficult time for us because we have no weapons.
◾️росія will first continue to implement the plan to occupy Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The success of the advance will determine when and where the Russians strike next.
◾️ Russia is preparing for an offensive around Kharkiv and Sumy regions in the northeast.
◾️російське The group, which is based on the border with Kharkiv, currently has 35,000 troops, but plans to increase it to 50,000-70,000. This is “not enough” for an operation to capture a large city.
◾️Швидка operation to get in and out – maybe. But an operation to capture Kharkiv or Sumy is of a completely different order. the Russians know this. And we know it.
◾️Наступ the Russians will begin in late may or early June.
◾️Зараз the russian army acts as a “single body” with a clear plan and under a single command.
The most unknown factor in the war is Europe. If Ukraine’s neighbors do not find a way to further increase their defense production to help Ukraine, they too will be in Russia’s crosshairs. The general suggests not to overestimate the importance of Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which, in his opinion, may prove ineffective in practice.
