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Internal front

Kremlin launches new information campaign against Ukraine’s leadership – expert

від Юрій Гончаренко August 22, 2024

Russian authorities have launched a large-scale information operation aimed at discrediting Ukraine’s top military and political leadership. This was stated by military expert Yehor Checherynda.

According to Checherynda, the main goal of the Kremlin’s new campaign is to undermine the credibility of key figures in Ukraine – President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, and Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov.

“Russian intelligence services and propagandists have intensified the spread of the narrative of deep enmity within the Ukrainian command. This is the basic and constant theme of the IPSO, which the enemy has been using systematically and methodically for several months now,” the expert noted.

Checherynda emphasized that the new information campaign was launched by self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. In an interview with Russian propagandist Yevgeny Popov, he called the Ukrainian president a “traitor” and claimed that Zelensky was possibly assassinated by the head of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine.

The expert believes that the intensification of such information attacks is related to Russia’s military failures, particularly in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces liberated more than 90 settlements.

“When there is absolutely nothing to boast about on the battlefield, Russia traditionally turns on the ‘television artists,'” Checherinda said.

He also warned that in the future, such Kremlin narratives could be spread not only by Russian media, but also by “Moscow canned goods” in Ukraine, from bloggers to MPs.

“Demoralization, discredit, chaos, unrest, and decline are the main leitmotifs of this information campaign,” the expert summarized.

August 22, 2024
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Events

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz officially accepts the Democratic nomination for Vice President of the United States

від Савицький Олексій August 22, 2024

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz officially accepted the vice presidential nomination during the third day of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, introducing himself to a national audience with an impassioned speech that emphasized his Midwestern roots – CBS News

In his speech, Walz used a relaxed and candid tone as he spoke about his experiences as a public school teacher and his accomplishments as governor of Minnesota. He emphasized the progressive initiatives he introduced, such as paid family leave and reproductive rights, and, referring to his experience as an American football coach, urged Democrats to work hard to win the election.

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1826464900417294791

“We’re in the fourth quarter. We are down by one point, but we are attacking. We are moving forward and we have a great team,” – said Walls. “There are 76 days left. It’s not that long. We’ll sleep later. We’re going to give it our all to keep moving forward and put Donald Trump in the past.”

He concluded his speech with a call to action, emphasizing the importance of all Democrats actively participating in the campaign.

“We need to come together and work together – step by step, call by call, donation by donation,” Walls emphasized.

The third night of the convention was an important event for the Democrats, who are preparing for a decisive fight in the November elections.

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1826467814187647406
August 22, 2024
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in Russia

Ukrainian cyber specialists from the GUR “hacked” Russian TV channels and showed the truth about the war (VIDEO)

від Юрій Гончаренко August 22, 2024

Cyber specialists of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine have successfully attacked the servers of a number of Russian TV channels, which allowed them to broadcast objective videos about the war in Ukraine. The DIU video was shown three times in prime time on such TV channels as Pervouralsk TV, Eurasia 360, Eurasia. Channel One” and others. According to the sources, some of the attacked channels belong to the media holding of oligarch Andriy Komarov, according tothe Research and Analysis Group InfolLight.UA

video shown on Russian channels

Russian cybersecurity experts attempted to regain control of the situation, but their actions led to the suspension of broadcasting of nine Russian TV channels, including Eurasia 360, Eurasia Channel One, Pervouralsk TV, Luhansk 24, First Republican, Spb, Oplot, TV-3, and First Russian.

Despite attempts by Russian specialists to remedy the situation, cyber specialists from the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine managed to maintain access to the TV companies’ servers, forcing some TV channels to stop broadcasting for a long time. As of the morning of August 22, only Eurasia 360 and TV-3 had partially resumed their work, while the broadcasts of the others remained blocked.

August 22, 2024
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Internal front

SBU neutralizes FSB agent group that was “hunting” for UAV plants in Dnipro region

від Савицький Олексій August 21, 2024

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) neutralized another FSB agent group operating in Dnipropetrovs’k region. The criminals were collecting information for Russian air strikes on military and critical infrastructure facilities in the region. One of the main targets was the enterprises producing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

In addition, the Russian special services were interested in the location of repair bases for Ukrainian military equipment and key highways used to transport weapons and ammunition to the front line.

To obtain the coordinates, the FSB remotely recruited six local residents through a Telegram channel they created, where they were looking for supporters of racism. The agents worked separately from each other in different localities in the region, but reported to a single FSB supervisor.

On the instructions of their supervisor, they monitored the movement of columns and echelons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and also paid attention to the accumulation of military equipment that had arrived from the front for maintenance. To identify the locations of UAV production facilities, the agents used their personal connections among local residents, asking for the necessary information.

SBU CI officers documented the actions of all members of the agent group in stages and detained them. During the searches, the SBU found 16 mobile phones, laptops and tablets containing evidence of their communication with the Russian special service.

The detainees were notified of being suspected of high treason under Part 2 of Article 111 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine, committed under martial law. They are being held without bail and face life imprisonment with confiscation of property.

The head of the FSB agent group, who is currently in Russia, has also been identified.

August 21, 2024
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Events

Biden approved secret US nuclear strategy in March – media

від Савицький Олексій August 21, 2024

In March, President Biden approved a highly classified strategic nuclear plan for the United States that for the first time directs American deterrence strategy toward China’s rapidly growing nuclear arsenal. The move comes as the Pentagon predicts that China’s nuclear stockpile could match the size and diversity of the U.S. and Russian arsenals within the next decade – The New York Times.

The White House has not made any official statements about Biden’s approval of the updated strategy, known as the Nuclear Posture Review. This document also envisages preparing the United States for possible coordinated nuclear threats from China, Russia, and North Korea. The document is updated approximately every four years and is so secret that it exists only in hard copies distributed to a limited number of senior national security officials and Pentagon commanders.

However, in recent speeches, two senior administration officials briefly mentioned these changes, ahead of a more detailed, unclassified report to Congress that is scheduled to be delivered before the end of Biden’s term.

Earlier this month, Vipin Narang, a nuclear strategist at MIT who worked at the Pentagon, said the president recently issued updated guidance on the use of nuclear weapons, taking into account several nuclear-armed adversaries. Particular attention was paid to the significant increase in the size and diversity of China’s nuclear arsenal.

In June, Pranay Waddy, the National Security Council’s senior director for arms control and nonproliferation, also mentioned this document, which for the first time analyzes in detail whether the United States is prepared to respond to nuclear crises that could occur simultaneously or sequentially using a combination of nuclear and non-nuclear weapons.

The new strategy, according to Waddy, emphasizes the need to simultaneously contain Russia, China, and North Korea.

Previously, the possibility that U.S. adversaries could coordinate nuclear threats to surpass the U.S. nuclear arsenal seemed unlikely. However, the new partnership between Russia and China, as well as the supply of conventional weapons by North Korea and Iran to Russia for the war in Ukraine, have radically changed Washington’s position.

Already, Russia and China are conducting joint military exercises, and intelligence is trying to find out whether Russia is helping North Korea and Iran develop missile programs in exchange for support.

This new document underscores that the next US president, who will be sworn in on January 20, will face a dramatically changed and much more volatile nuclear situation than the one three years ago. Russian President Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, including during the crisis in October 2022, when Biden and his aides, studying intercepted conversations between Russian commanders, feared that the probability of using nuclear weapons could rise to 50% or even higher.

Biden, along with the leaders of Germany and the United Kingdom, forced China and India to make public statements that nuclear weapons should not be used in Ukraine, which temporarily eased tensions.

“It was an important moment,” said Richard N. Haass, a former senior State Department and National Security Council official under several Republican presidents and a former president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations. “We are facing a radicalized Russia; the assumption that nuclear weapons will not be used in conventional conflict is no longer credible.”

The second important shift is caused by China’s nuclear ambitions. The country’s nuclear growth is even faster than U.S. intelligence agencies predicted two years ago, fueled by President Xi Jinping’s determination to move away from the longstanding strategy of “minimal deterrence” in favor of matching or exceeding the size of the U.S. and Russian arsenals. Today, China’s nuclear complex is the fastest growing in the world.

While former President Donald Trump confidently predicted that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un would give up his nuclear weapons after their three face-to-face meetings, the opposite has happened. Kim has redoubled his efforts and is now estimated to have more than 60 nuclear weapons and the fuel to build more.

This expansion has changed the nature of the threat from North Korea: when the country had only a few weapons, it could be deterred by missile defense systems. However, its arsenal is now rapidly approaching the size of Pakistan’s and Israel’s arsenals, which in theory allows Pyongyang to coordinate nuclear threats with Moscow and Beijing.

U.S. officials say the new nuclear situation will inevitably change U.S. plans and strategy. As Vipin Narang said when he left the Pentagon: “We have to see the world as it is, not as we would like it to be. Perhaps in time we will look back on the quarter century since the Cold War as a break in the nuclear threat.” According to him, the new challenge is “the real possibility of cooperation and even collusion between our nuclear-armed adversaries.”

Despite this, new challenges to the US nuclear strategy have not yet become a topic of discussion in the presidential campaign. President Biden, who has been a nuclear nonproliferation advocate for most of his political career, has not spoken publicly about how he would respond to the challenges posed by the growing nuclear capabilities of China and North Korea. Vice President Kamala Harris, who is the Democratic candidate, also did not address the issue.

At his last press conference in July, a few days before he announced that he would not run for a second term, Biden confirmed that he had adopted a policy of opposing a broader partnership between China and Russia. “Yes, I do, but I’m not ready to talk about the details publicly,” Biden said. He did not mention, nor was he asked, how this partnership affects U.S. nuclear strategy.

Since Harry Truman’s presidency, this strategy has been focused primarily on Russia’s nuclear arsenal. However, Biden’s new guidance shows how quickly this is changing. China was mentioned in the last nuclear guidance issued at the end of the Trump administration, but the extent of Xi Jinping’s ambitions was not yet fully understood.

Biden’s strategy sharpens the focus on Pentagon estimates that China’s nuclear arsenal could grow to 1,000 by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035, bringing it closer to the level of the US and Russian nuclear forces. Officials note that Beijing is already ahead of these projections, having begun loading nuclear missiles into new silos discovered by commercial satellites three years ago.

Another cause for concern is that China has suspended a short-lived dialog with the United States on improving nuclear security. In particular, they discussed the possibility of warnings about missile tests or the creation of hotlines to prevent the escalation of incidents to a nuclear conflict.

One such discussion between the two countries took place in late fall, shortly before Biden and Xi met in California, where they tried to restore bilateral relations. The joint statement mentioned these talks, but the Chinese side had already hinted that they were not interested in further discussions and announced earlier this summer that they were ending the talks. They attributed this to American arms sales to Taiwan, which had been going on long before the nuclear security talks began.

Mallory Stewart, Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability, noted that the Chinese government “actively discourages us from having conversations about risks.” Instead, Beijing, she said, “seems to be adopting Russia’s tactic, which is that until we resolve the tensions and challenges in our bilateral relationship, they choose not to continue our arms control, risk reduction, and nonproliferation conversations.”

Stewart emphasized that it is in China’s interest to “prevent the risks of miscalculations and misunderstandings.”

August 21, 2024
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Events

Belarus deploys aviation and air defense troops on the border with Ukraine – media

від Савицький Олексій August 20, 2024

Belarus has stepped up its military presence on the border with Ukraine, deploying aircraft, air defense troops, anti-aircraft missiles, and soldiers from the radio engineering troops. The move comes after President Alexander Lukashenko announced that nearly a third of the Belarusian army, which numbers about 60,000 troops, would be deployed along the border – AP

According to Lukashenka, the decision was made in response to the increase in the number of Ukrainian troops along the border, although this information has not been independently confirmed. The deployment signals a significant escalation in the region, raising tensions amid Belarus’ close cooperation with Russia over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Ukraine has not confirmed the deployment of Belarusian troops on the 1,084-kilometer-long common border.

Russia has used Belarus – which is heavily dependent on Russian loans and cheap energy – as a staging ground for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, moving troops through Belarusian territory to attack from the north. In 2023, Russia also moved some of its tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

On Sunday, Lukashenko called for talks between Russia and Ukraine, but said that Kyiv’s current actions in Russia’s Kursk region prevented the start of a dialogue. He characterized this “escalation” as an attempt to provoke Moscow.

August 20, 2024
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Internal front

Law enforcers neutralize Russian intelligence network, which included current and former law enforcement officers

від Савицький Олексій August 19, 2024

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) neutralized an agent network of the Russian Federation operating in Mykolaiv, Dnipro and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. This network was engaged in spying on the Ukrainian Defense Forces and the country’s critical infrastructure.

During a special operation in Mykolaiv, two members of the network were detained, including a local law enforcement officer. He had been in contact with the group’s resident, former police officer Andriy Shevchenko, since 2015. The law enforcement officer collected information about the movements of the Armed Forces and strategic enterprises in the region, passing this information to Russian special services.

To obtain the intelligence, the traitor used his official position and also asked his colleagues for information under the guise of friendly conversations.

The detainee’s father, who used to work in the police, was also involved in the agent’s activities. His coordinates were used to adjust the fire of the Russian occupiers at energy facilities in Prykarpattia.

To adjust the enemy fire, the ex-militant used his acquaintance, who lives in the western region of Ukraine, in the dark.

The SBU detained the agents while they were trying to escape to Crimea. During the searches, they seized equipment, documents with evidence of crimes, Russian symbols and rubles. The detainees were notified of suspicion of high treason, which threatens them with life imprisonment with confiscation of property.

SBU investigators served the detained agents suspicion notices under Part 2 of Article 111 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine (high treason committed under martial law).

In addition, Shevchenko, a resident of the agent group, was served with a notice of suspicion in absentia under the same article of the Criminal Code of Ukraine.

It has been established that the cell was supervised by the head of the 161st training center of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (better known as the “game”) and two employees of the “FSB office in Crimea”. The SBU has already identified them.

August 19, 2024
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Position.

Protected: Unity vs. ambition: who is trying to diminish the success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kursk region?

від Юрій Гончаренко August 18, 2024

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August 18, 2024
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Analytics

The Russian hand in Africa

від Майданюк Валерій August 18, 2024

By fueling civil wars and dictatorial regimes in Africa, Russia is making life hell for the people of this long-suffering continent. By lying about Western colonialism, Russia’s crimes have long surpassed the scale of violence of any colonizer.

Most of the African wars of the second half of the twentieth century, genocides and famines were caused or supported by the policies of Moscow, which fought against its geopolitical rivals in Africa. The communist regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam in Ethiopia, called the “black Stalin,” starved hundreds of thousands of people to death and turned the lives of millions into hell with Moscow’s active support and military supplies.

The bloody wars in Angola, the devastated Somalia, the dictatorial regimes of real cannibals like Jean-Bédel Bokassa – Moscow had a hand in all of this. Much of the wars and suffering of the peoples of Africa would not have happened if the Russians had not stuck their hands in the “black continent”: they did not help bloody dictators, did not support armed coups, and did not arm separatists.

Russian propaganda likes to repeat that Russia has never had colonies in Africa, unlike European powers. However, Russians have not yet developed their conscience to the point where they realize how much misery they have actually brought to Africans. European colonialism did not shed as much blood in Africa as the Russians did with their “help.”

Today, Russia continues to provoke conflicts in Africa and uses Wagnerian proxies for military coups and the establishment of pro-Russian regimes in the Sahel, particularly in Mali and Niger. Already today, three Sahelian countries, under Russian influence, are turning away from the civilized community and African interethnic associations and turning into dictatorships led by juntae.

In addition to Africa, Moscow has turned Cuba, once the most beautiful resort in the Caribbean, into a sanctuary of poverty and stagnation. The “Island of Freedom”, which was famous for its beautiful beaches, hotels, restaurants, and was the most popular vacation spot for American tourists, degraded into a poverty-stricken country in a paradise-like corner of the world after Moscow’s intervention. During the Kremlin-inspired Cuban Missile Crisis, when the world was on the brink of nuclear war, Moscow “helped” to protect the integrity of the Castro regime, and thus condemned the people of Cuba to more than half a century of poverty, suffering, terror and totalitarianism. Cuban fishermen, once free, are now organized into fish collective farms. For example, they are forbidden to catch and eat lobsters – they must hand them over to the state, which will sell them to foreign tourists or give them to the party bosses.

There are very few countries left in the world that have not been ruined by the Russians, but this is only because their hands have not yet reached there. Ukrainian GUR operations in Africa, aimed at reducing the threatening influence of the Russians, cannot be large-scale, although they have become an act of indifference of Ukrainians to the fate of African peoples. The international community must stop the Russians in Africa, who have come as wolves in sheep’s clothing, deepening violence on the continent and turning into the largest colonizers in the twenty-first century.

Author: Valeriy Maydanyuk

August 18, 2024
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Analytics

Threats to the European Security System from Russia and its Satellites

від Майданюк Валерій August 17, 2024

Today, the main security threat to the EU and Europe as a whole is Russia and its dictatorial Putin regime. Russia has unleashed a series of wars of occupation on the territory of the former Soviet Union, including two wars in Georgia, one in Moldova, and two in Ukraine.

Also, together with the dictatorial regime of Bashar al-Assad, Russia organized massive shelling of civilians in Syria, thereby contributing to the most massive and dangerous war of the last decade, which has shaken the entire Middle East and Europe, flooding it with millions of refugees and causing serious internal problems. Russia is constantly rattling its weapons near the borders of its neighbors, violating their airspace or invading their territorial waters. Russia is also trying to supply both sides of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh with weapons, thereby intensifying the conflict, and then seems to be trying to facilitate its resolution, using the situation to its maximum advantage.

Already in the summer and fall of 2021, Russia, through its satellite, self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alyaksandr Lukashenka, created another crisis on the borders of Belarus with Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland, transporting migrants from the Middle East, essentially forming a partnership between two smuggling states.

A separate issue is disinformation wars, the spread of fakes, and cyberattacks. Russia has become famous for organizing groups of hackers, Internet bots, which, like China and Iran, are tasked with disinformation, panic, and frustration among the people of European countries. Hacker groups carry out massive attacks on the security systems of large corporations or public institutions around the world. A separate issue is Russia’s support for any protest, destructive, movements (for example, the “yellow vest” movement in France, the Brexit movement in Britain, QAnon and some radical groups in the BLM in the United States, anti-vaccination activists around the world), which aim to call on the broad masses of the population of the countries attacked by Russia in this way to oppose the actions of the authorities, deny their legitimacy and multiply chaos and internal conflict, thereby weakening them and making them susceptible to external influences. Russia Today, sponsored by the Russian state, is engaged in replicating outright lies and fakes in the media space of different countries, including European ones. All of this paints a rather dangerous and disturbing picture.

One of Russia’s goals is to increase confrontation and hatred between European countries, to increase internal discontent, deepen conflicts, and create crises with critical infrastructure, including hospitals, banks, strategic enterprises, transportation, and the functioning of public institutions. They partially succeed in this.

A separate issue is the network of Russian influence groups around the world. In European countries, these are mainly far-right and far-left parties that almost openly receive financial, organizational and advisory support from Russia, which they repay a hundredfold in the information and political context, denying the very idea of resisting Russia’s covert or overt aggression, undermining countermeasures against Russian special operations, the vision of sanctions, etc.

The only way out in this situation is a coordinated solidarity action of all those who are in the focus of Russia’s attack – and these are primarily NATO countries and their allies around the world. These institutions have already begun to take measures to counter Russian influence, but today they are rather weak, poorly organized, underfunded and uncoordinated.

Suggestions:

  • Strengthen existing structures designed to combat the threats posed by Russian expansionism, in particular in the areas of cyberattacks, information warfare, spreading lies and fakes, incitement and manipulation of European citizens, etc.
  • Strengthening the role of European countries in NATO, building their own security means of deterring Russia, strengthening NATO’s eastern flank
  • Create new joint European bodies that will monitor the observance of human rights in the Russian Federation
  • Strengthening the European and Euro-Atlantic perspective for Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia.

Author: Yuriy Mindyuk

August 17, 2024
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